Charts - Nov 2015

More than 200,000 pounds of hops have sold on The Exchange so far. Both pounds sold and pounds available have climbed every month since launch. Today there's just under 170,000 pounds of active listings available. Clearly, there is excess inventory in the market for some varieties. Here's a look at total pounds listed vs. total pounds sold by month thru October.

We're just beginning to analyze demand for each hop variety. We've been studying the average time it takes for a given variety to sell, as well as how much of a given listing sells vs. remains unsold at various price points. The chart below probably doesn't tell you anything you don't already know, but eventually we hope to accurately forecast changes in demand for a given variety based on these trends and other data.

Let's take a closer look at some current high-demand varieties. While Citra often sells out in minutes, on average it takes almost 5 hours to sell. A small number of high-priced listings can have a big impact on average sell time. Simcoe is #2 at 10 hours and Mosaic has the 3rd fastest average sell time at 31 hours. Check this blog post from August to see how the weighted average trading price compares to the range of list prices for each variety.

Today, there are 539 pounds of Citra listed between $25.50 and $30. Don't be surprised if sellers decrease those prices, as buyers reach the limit of what they are willing to pay.

The free market eventually stabilizes prices - if the price is too high, don't buy! Here's Citra performance on The Exchange April-to-date.

Simcoe sales on The Exchange have been more sporadic. As with Citra, the spread of list prices has been huge, but the weighted average trading price is a bit lower compared to Citra.

Over 30 tons of Cascade has hit The Exchange since May. If you missed my analysis of Cascade from our last newsletter, you can check that out here.

Amarillo is another high demand variety that has seen a lot of action on The Exchange. Its average trading price has fallen sharply since harvest.

Falconer's Flight (a personal favorite) always seems to sell fairly quickly, but at very reasonable, stable prices.

Sometimes it's interesting to compare average list prices to average sale prices...

Here are the varieties that saw the most action on The Exchange during the 3rd quarter of 2015.

That's all for now. I hope your brewery is beginning to feel some relief after a very busy summer. As you find yourself with a little downtime this winter, be sure to renew your focus on GBPs and get up to speed on The Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA). Regards, John

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